Subnational Economic Conditions and the Spatial Polarization of Mass Euroscepticism: A Longitudinal Analysis
with Alexia Katsanidou
Revise and resubmitAbstract
Existing research mainly analyzes mass attitudes towards the European Union (EU) from the national and individual-level perspective. This paper adds to this literature by focusing on the relationship between EU support and subnational economic conditions, using harmonized survey data covering 40 years and 1.1 million respondents in 197 European regions. Our analyses reveal important temporal dynamics in the relationship between EU support and subnational economic conditions. In particular, we find clear evidence of a spatial polarization of public opinion during and since the Great Recession, with the odds of EU support being significantly higher in economically resilient regions. During the years of the Great Recession, this spatial polarization emerged due to a sharp increase in euroscepticism in economically challenged regions. Our research indicates that this spatial disparity has widened since the Great Recession, not because of changes in public opinion in economically challenged regions but rather due to an increase in the odds of EU support among citizens living in economically resilient regions. Finally, our study reveals evidence of changes in public opinion that challenge received wisdom regarding the relationship between EU support and education. Specifically, our analyses suggest that, in the post-Great Recession period, the odds of EU support are higher among the lower-educated living in economically resilient regions than the higher-educated in economically challenged regions. We end by discussing the implications of these findings for future research on euroscepticism, the winners-and-losers-of-globalization thesis, and party competition.
Conditional Satisfaction: Political Support, Congruence, and the (Un)certainty of Political Marginalization
In this paper we examine the conditional relationship between citizen satisfaction with the functioning of democracy and ideological congruence. Specifically, we focus on how levels of uncertainty regarding political marginalization vary by government type, paying particular attention to the conditioning effects of individual-level political sophistication and coalition governments’ ideological make-up. We test this argument using an original data set of harmonized survey data covering one million respondents in 28 countries over a 40-year period. We find limited evidence that the relationship between citizen satisfaction and ideological congruence is conditional on national government type, at least for the average survey respondent. Our analyses provide clear evidence, however, that government type and political sophistication interact to shape how citizens evaluate the functioning of democracy. Our study also reveals compelling evidence that the ideological composition of coalition governments conditions the relationship between citizen satisfaction and congruence, but again only among higher-educated citizens.
Where You Sit Is Where You Stand: Education-Based Descriptive Representation and Perceptions of Democratic Quality
with Yvette Peters
In recent years, scholars of descriptive representation have paid growing attention to the issue of class. This paper contributes to this line of research by examining the educational (mis)match of elected officials and the citizens they serve. Using data from an original paired elite-mass survey experiment, the paper investigates whether judgements of democratic quality are affected by education-based descriptive representation. Our study reveals limited evidence in support of the idea that citizens’ and politicians’ democratic assessments are shaped by a norm of education-based descriptive representation. What we find instead is strong evidence of affinity effects where democratic judgments are influenced by whether descriptive representation, or the lack thereof, favors citizens and politicians based on their own educational background. An important exception though are citizens without higher education, whose assessments of democratic quality are unaffected by education-based descriptive representation. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of these findings for existing and future research.